Ray Dalio: The Next CRASH Causes & What Should You Do.  Ray Dalio on The Economy.

Ray Dalio: The Next CRASH Causes & What Should You Do. Ray Dalio on The Economy.

ray welcome I say you’ve written one of
the largest and I have no doubt most comprehensive analyses of debt crises
that I have ever seen you say this pattern repeats itself again and again
why write a book about this well I’m at a stage of my life that I want to pass
along the principles that helped me this was really research that was done before
the 2008 financial crisis and it lays out a template of how these things
happen over and over again in other words I believe that same things happen
over and over again and if you study the patterns of them you understand the
cause-effect relationships and then can write down principles for dealing with
them well we dealt with them very well in that financial crisis and in other
debt crisis is and I wanted to pass that template along it’s actually only in the
first 60 pages of the book so it’s not a big read if people want to and you’re
giving it away for free which is great so where are we in the current debt
cycle you often hear lots of talk about debt
obviously we’re now ten years as you note past the financial crisis but debt
still comes up the deficit is ballooning in the United States where are we in the
cycle I think that there are six stages to the cycle I’m going to touch on them
briefly there’s the early part of the cycle
where debt is being used to create productivity incomes and then it can be
serviced well asset prices go up everything is great and then you come to
the bubble phase of the cycle and in that bubble phase you’re in a position
where everybody extrapolates the past because asset goes up they think it’s
assets are going to continue to rise and you put you borrow money and they
leverage and when you are in that phase you do it when we do the calculations
well you could start to see that maybe you won’t be able to sustain that level
of debt growth then you come into the third phase of the cycle which is the
top that’s typically the part of the cycle when central banks start to put on
the brakes tighten monetary policy and the like then you come into the down leg
and when interest rates hit 0% you come into a depression part of that cycle
because monetary policy doesn’t work normally when
interest rates hit zero then you have to have quantitative easing and you begin
that expansion and then you carry that along and you begin the cycle carry that
so I think the period that we’re in is very similar to the period that we were
in in the 1930s if I may oh absolutely explain it okay there are only two times
in the history of this century where we had debt crisis in which interest rates
hit zero and in both of those times the central bank had to print money and go
to a different type of monetary policy which we call quantitative easing and to
buy financial assets and that drives up in both of those cases the value of
those financial assets and produces a recovery but it drives interest rates
down to zero or near zero where they are around the world and that buying in this
case fifteen trillion dollars of financial assets has put up pushed up
financial assets and drove driven the interest rates down to zero so it’s
caused asset prices to rise it’s also caused populism more populism because
that process creates a gap between the rich and the poor those who have more
financial assets now see those asset prices go up and for various other
reasons a wealth gap has developed if you look at right now
the top 10% of 1% of the populations net worth is equal about to the bottom 90%
combined that’s very similar to the late 30s when we had that stimulation and so
on so we in a situation where we’re in the part of the cycle later part of the
cycle where quantitative easing has been used most of its energy asset prices are
up interest rates are low and we’re beginning a tightening of monetary
policy very much like we began in 1937 and we have a political situation in
terms of having more of a conflict between the rich and the poor which is
bringing out a populism populism around the world
is the selection of strong-minded leaders who are sort of take charge but
tend to be more nationalistic and so we’re in that type of position and
you’ve written extensively and articulately about what happened after
1937 which is we went through a real surge of populism and nationalism and
got to World War two and all the horrible things that happened there what
do you think happens now given where we are
I think the cause-effect relationships are analogous meaning that if you have a
wealth gap and you have a downturn in the economy where you’re sharing the pie
how do you divide a budget sharing the budget there’s a risk that the both
sides are at odds with each other there’s also a greater international
risk in tensions economic tensions produce global tensions for various
reasons so I think that in this expansion we’re about in the seventh
inning of a nine inning game let’s say we’re in the later part of the cycle the
part of the cycle in which monetary policy is tightening and there’s not
much capacity to squeeze out of the economy and that as interest rates tend
to rise if they rise faster than is discounted in the curve it can hurt
asset prices and asset prices are fairly fully priced at this level of interest
rates at some point we’re going to have a downturn because that’s why we have
recessions nobody ever gets it perfectly and my concern is what that downturn
would be I think that that’s not immediate we don’t have the same
pressures but I think it’s maybe into maybe it’s in two years I can’t say but
I think that that what concerns me is that it concerns me also internationally
because the situation internationally is quite similar to the late 30s in that in
the these periods of time these geopolitical cycles there is an
established power and an emerging power that then have a rivalry at first it’s
an economic rivalry and then it can become
mystic so back then the United States and England War One World War one and we
had the peace but then as there was a rising Germany and a rising Japan there
became that kind of economic rivalry that became more antagonist ik I think
that we have a situation where there is a rising China and the United States is
an existing economic power and there is a rivalry about that and there can be an
antagonism about that so what when I look at it I think the parallels are
quite similar doesn’t mean that the same outcomes have to happen okay
but does mean that I think we have to be alerted to the fact that going forward
in a downturn monetary policy will not be able to be as effective as it was
last time so we have to be cautious about a downturn I would say err on the
side of having a little bit more leeway and be and then we have to be concerned
about the wealth gap and the consequences geopolitically and if we
don’t want to repeat what happened in the late 30s and 40s what do we have to
do what is the having studied history the right way to handle this and head
that off well I think one of the things is to make sure the capitalism works for
the majority of people to look at the bottom 60% of the population and use
that as metrics to say is that improving or not and how do you approach that
wealth gap it’s not just a wealth gap I think it’s more important than the
wealth gap is an opportunity gap that people need to be made useful by being
able to have jobs and so on so I think that there should be that should be
considered you know an imperative I think that we have to be thinking about
our balance of payment situation and the amount of debt that we’re producing
we’re in a very privileged position of having a reserve currency one of the
things that distinguishes countries that really have problems from those who are
able to manage their debt problems is whether the currencies denominated the
debt is denominated in one’s own currency that requires us in order to do
that to continue to maintain sound basic finance
I think we’re going to have though a squeeze that will be not just related to
debt but even more importantly related to pensions and healthcare obligations
that will happen so I think these will be difficult times not not immediately
but I think in maybe a few years and I think it will be very dependent on how
we are with each other so let me ask you about both of those first how do we make
capitalism work for everybody it seems like part of the problem is
that as you pointed out the rise in asset values are not accruing to 60 to
80 percent of the population anytime you suggest that companies pay people more
the financial class well Sal that’s outrageous that should be free markets
we can’t have minimum wage and it should be hey Iran was right you want to raise
you’ve got a bargain for it so how in that you you obviously care about the
economy how do we make capitalism work for everybody without wrecking I think I
think the first thing that you need to do is realize that it’s a the issue as a
national emergency I would like the president to declare it as a national
emergency and then use metrics to judge that in other words take the population
the bottom 60% 60% and take those numbers and make the metrics and then
bring together a commission of people a bipartisan Commission to be dealing with
this I think there are a lot of things that could be done I see it to some
extent philanthropic last thing at an education for example in education we’re
in a situation where in many cases terrible terrible conditions in
education literally in schools that I know children are having to share
pencils they’ll break a pencil and half and sharpen it at both ends or they’ll
pass it back and forth they don’t have adequate books there were some day those
children in Connecticut where the state that I’m from which is either the
richest or what certainly one of the top three richest country states in the
country we have 22% of the pop Highschool population that is either
disconnected or disengaged and and so I’ll tell you what that means
a disengaged student is one that attends high school but doesn’t participate they
don’t study they don’t really make progress a disconnected student is one
that they don’t even know where they are 22% of the population in Connecticut is
one of those high school students is one of those those those are students that
are not going to be able to be productive they’re going to be on the
streets if you look at the cost of incarceration cost of incarceration it’s
between 85 and 100 $45,000 typically a year in terms of that so there were
certain things I think I think you could create public/private partnerships so
that these some programs do well I’m support I support for example
microfinance microfinance in being able to bring about there are many things
forget the things that I’m supporting I’m saying if we take an initiative and
you say in national emergency and you bring together others and you establish
metrics like good management of that I think that you are you will be making
progress toward dealing with that in in public part private partnership I don’t
know what’ll happen I don’t think that’s going to happen
I have no prospect of that that’s why I’m a little bit concerned that what
will the next downturn will be like does it require our raising taxes because the
other problem as you point out is the debt and the debt growth is accelerated
with the recent tax changes any time you mentioned the idea of more money to
education or more money to other social services lots of people freaked out and
say we can’t afford it so are you suggesting that we do need to have an
increase in the tax base I think that most probably we do but the real issue
is mostly productivity right in other words to unleash productivity there was
a time that women were in part of the world for workforce and when they
entered the workforce it it caused a great productivity boom I think if we
make it a mission that that group becomes much more productive and has the
opportunity I mean I think the country you know is
what are we about I think it should be the land of opportunity and we bring
that together and produce those opportunities because that produces
productivity candidate Trump going back to debt campaigned on how awful the
administer administration was doing that debt was growing how President Trump has
a big new tax plan that has radically accelerated the growth of debt given
your concern and expertise in dead cycles are you concerned about what’s
happening at this stage of the cycle in terms of the increasing debt the private
sector debt for the most part I don’t have much in the way of concerns for
when we do our pro form of financial numbers and we look at we see pockets
that will probably have problems servicing their debt there’s a lot of
cash around I am concerned in about a two-year period about the amount of
dollar denominated debt that we’re going to have to sell abroad because we’re
going to have to fund the deficits and then in addition we’ll have our balance
sheets the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet go down and that’ll involve a
significant amount of selling of dollar-denominated debt when I look at
the portfolio’s of different entities that are holding different amounts I
think it’ll be more difficult to sell that amount of debt I think that will
cause upward pressure on interest rates but the way that works is that pressure
will sort of be negative for the economy now let’s say two years from now but it
will also probably be at that point more negative for the dollar right now we’re
in a short squeeze $4 because there’s a lot of dollar-denominated debt a debt is
a short dollar position because it’s a promise to delivery dollars you don’t
own and when you have a lot of countries that have borrowed in dollars and have
their cash flows in local currency such as we see it in Argentina and Turkey and
Brazil in other countries they’re in a debt squeeze that causes the debt to the
dollar to rise and that deck squeeze will be passed and
years at the same time as we’re going to have to sell a lot more
dollar-denominated debt and I think that that probably would be bearish for the
dollar and you know at that point so there are parts not the same sectors as
last time but different parts so you’ve had one of the most successful careers
in history and investing huge sums of money as you look at where we are in the
cycle what do you think normal investors should do you say where it’s not an
immediate issue but a couple of years out we may have a downturn how do you
invest in a retirement portfolio in light of that I think that there are two
key parts of investing there is what is your strategic asset allocation and then
there’s moving around there’s tactical bets and alpha and I think the average
man should not try to make tactical bets to try to produce alpha because he’s
going to get it wrong alpha is better than average in other words to say now’s
the time to buy now is the time to sell it’s market timing don’t do that the
history of it is clear I remember learning this when Peter Lynch ran the
Magellan fund and there was the best stock performing fund in all the stock
market when the stock market was best and the average investor lost money in
it and how was that possible and the reason it’s possible is one that was
very hot and the advertisements were there people bought and when it was had
a period of bad performance they got out and they got scared and so market timing
is a very difficult thing it’s a very difficult thing for we who puts hundreds
and millions of dollars each year right we have sixteen hundred people at
Bridgewater it’s a difficult game and so I would say that they should not try to
play that game that they should understand the how to achieve balance
and diversification in an operating now how to do that is a conversation that’s
a you know a longer conversation Tony Robbins injured in terview me about it
and he made a very simple book as part of investing it’s described in their
but the you there’s ways of achieving balance that doesn’t cost you return and
significantly reduces your your risk so I would recommend that they come to a a
balanced portfolio what we call an all-weather portfolio but something that
means that they’re not exposed to any particular type of environment and it’s
the same portfolio in inning seven of the debt cycle that’s right if you’re
going to play the cycle then realize that the time to buy is when there’s
blood in the streets is the same okay and then you you sell when everything is
great and everybody’s extrapolating the past and you’re near the end of the
cycle because as you come in as your unemployment rate gets low and asset
prices are high and debts are being built up and everyone’s extrapolating
the past the past will not perform up to expectations and that is the time to
sell but it’s very difficult for people to step away from the crowd and to do
that and and what do you watch to know that everyone is now excited and
everyone’s extrapolating into the future and I’ll give you an example which is
that two years ago we talked lots of concerns then about the stock market and
valuation and you said Henry relax we’re in the middle of the cycle now you say
we’re in the seventh inning what do I as a normal person look at to tell me okay
it’s one out in the ninth time to start transferring and getting ready for
disaster okay first of all you look at how much slack is left in the cycle okay
where’s the unemployment rate where’s the capacity what is the central bank
doing is a tiding monetary policy or is it easing monetary policy that’s one so
how much slack second you look at how much debt has been used to finance those
purchases okay third you look at the amount of sentiment the you know the the
euphoria and fourth I would say you can see the pricing of how much debt is how
much growth is built into the pricing in other words by comparing the yield on
stock and the yield on bonds and you look at
the price that you look at credit spreads and things like that they paint
the picture of the future that’s the discounted future and if you
look at that picture of the discounted future and that picture is an
extrapolation of what happened in the past to something that’s unlikely to
happen going forward then you would know that prices are are too high and then
you have to think about timing great


  1. Watching Ray Dalio talking about economy is observing a master at work. Incredible!
    Read Ray Dalio Books:
    Big Debt Crises:
    US – https://amzn.to/2CefnzD
    UK – https://amzn.to/2yz1icE
    Principles: Life and Work:
    US – https://amzn.to/2NKuLWM
    UK – https://amzn.to/2CH64JJ

  2. Ray is the Leonardo da Vinci of investing.. I came here reading the book of tony robbins money master the game.

  3. Brilliant regarding markets and clueless when discussing big government solutions. In fact, he also fails to blame government for the state of the economy.

  4. Lots of debt at this time. Public and private. When this cycle goes to recession, asset prices will be hit really hard as theyre based largely on debt. When the Fed starts up QE again, to counteract this recession, how high will they drive their balance sheet? And what will this do to currency valuations volitility?

  5. Elites that caused the issue now coming out to warn the public. Geitner and Bernanke who caused the gross distortions asked Ray to do this.

  6. He should turn over his hedge fund to others and nominate himself to the federal reserve or us president…..on second thought, why would he do that.

  7. We already spend more on education than any other country. The problem is the teacher's union. Watch 'Waiting for Superman' to see why.

  8. Generalities about investing for the next crisis; no real help. About the problems of our schools, again a platitude about improving "productivity". This is the language of educational privatization that is the coup de grace of public education. About raising taxes, a quick probably "some". No acknowledgment of the ripoff of the US taxpayer by large international corporations with tax havens, companies like Apple, Pepsico, and most others. A worthless discussion that avoids discussion of the destruction of our country by its wealthiest citizens and by our prostituted government.

  9. A real treasure Appreciate his effort. He does not have. To spend many hours I am sure on his research and writing
    When he talks and opines I would be a fool not to listen.
    Phillip Silverstein M.D.

  10. Maybe if Mr. Dalio would open his Hedge Fund to qualified investors and not just the Elite his neighbor kids can afford a pencil.

  11. Some valid points, but not a strong explanation of what's actually happening. Tune into RealVision – that will give you much more color, depth and intelligence about what's happening now. Ray is absolutely right about the current economic situation not working for the majority of people – he is wrong to cite it as "capitalism." The situation we are in is not actually capitalism, it's cronyism. If we had a genuinely capitalist system and true free markets, the average Joe (all of us, really) would be far better off.

  12. Women were productive in educating their children. Now they are at work and there are fewer productive children. When will we change the measurements of productivity to reflect homemaking?

  13. Looks like he’s calling for Catholic social teaching😊: ban compound interest, pay just wages… bottom 30% will improve right away😊

  14. This is hugely disappointing. I didn’t realize that Ray was in favor of the Fed. He sounds very progressive. We make capitalism work for everyone by removing governments influence, no lobbyists, no regulating out competition, less regulation period, basically government needs to shrink. Ray doesn’t know better, no one in government knows better, we should be responsible for ourselves.

  15. I am very productive……..sold the business and the home in the city and moved to rural land with water LOW TAXES where I can grow my own food. Never want to own a business again. Governments terrorize you with taxes and rules/regulations.

  16. From my life view and daily experiences dealing with high turn over work force…ppl,many ppl don't want to be out right refuse to be productive. To the point the company now has no choice but to lower the bar ,or quality of service to all. Discouraged,mistreated populous give up. ! I think we are deff last point of fixing…sad.

  17. For how paranoid and fickle the Stock Market is… I'm actually surprised that it hasn't crashed already, just from listening to these doomsayers.

  18. I wish Ray would have responded to the question @19:12, if you are a few years away from making a big purchase where you would need to touch the money to be able to afford such assets then you should not be invested at a level that prevents that. Common sense is what the individual investor needs because of their lack of emotional stability and financial planning……not analytical wise assery. Great Interview though!

  19. There are lots of foreign spis in China, Chinese government know this and have collected all the evidence BUT always choose to do nothing, because we want to maintain good relationship with western countries. Now that Canadog shot its fire and kidnapped a innocent Chinese women, we catch one of their criminal spis, the difference is, we are doing things legally. This Michael Kovrig guy belongs to something called "International Crisis Group" which does a lot of spying in China, Hong Kong and North Korea.

  20. If I was a boomer and had a lot of money tied up stocks for retirement, I would go into bonds or cash. It's only obvious a recession is coming sooner rather than later with this long bull run.. when the bear comes in he is going to slash away 30-40% of those savings…

  21. You’re right, now they have come out with reports saying recession in 2020.
    Also, both WWI & WWII were economic struggles between the UK and the rise of Germany. Germany has always had the potential to be a powerhouse and has always been put down. Even now, they dominated Europe but this time they were aligned with the west.

  22. It is difficult to raise Tax and to unleash productivity at the same time, Tax inefficiency will resist productivity growth. Tax is not a solution at all.

  23. Saying banks buy assets? Assets being a market entity? How does that counterbalance low interest rates? If nky way banks fan make loans is by making interest on loajs, that is impossible..Banks are like Sears saying we can't go on. What they really say is we aren't making As Much money as we want. Sounds like a spoiled brat kid. Employee loyalty and histories are not appreciated. Communities not either. You can't just take, take, take. Wake up ostrich!

  24. At about page 90. Thought I'd just read the first 60 but, no way. This may be the most important book about the economy ever (maybe not, I haven't read them all 🙂 ). I little bit of a tough read but well worth the effort. Dump Facebook posts and Survivor and spend the time reading and Listening to Ray Dalio.

  25. Why not just make the point that fiat currency never works and actually causes not only a wealth gap but an education gap and therefore an opportunity gap as well. It all stems from fiat currency, by gov't decree.

  26. This sort of man perpetuates as well as keeps the foolish ungodly system in check, ask him if what he speaks, is matched by inner honesty, all ideas, would truth think like this??act like this ?be consumed like this, and ask humans to live this way .on the contrary.

  27. how do you get free market capitalism to work for everybody? First you got to implement free market capitalism and not say whatever this current system is it isn't capitalism . America's economy is crony capitalism at best which is series of monopolies protected by government and it's laws.

  28. Talking about living in a bubble! although mister dalio is well-intentioned he has no idea how badly we have been effected by dysgenics and cultural degredation in America SR, improving schools by giving them more pencils or even more new classrooms and higher pay for teachers, i hate to break it to you ray it's just not going to work. Or make any positive impact whatsoever on the lack of values placed by families on education. think about it ray it's as important as the credit cycle, the dysgenic "cycle". You billionaires just dont rub elbows enough with real folk! You live in a bubble.

  29. He says that "asset prices go up and that is great." No it isn't. Asset prices go up because of an increase in the money supply. It is inflation. The natural consequence of prices in an expanding economy is deflation because supply of goods and services increase per capita. A good healthy deflation happened in most of the 19th century except for when large businesses defaulted on their loans and the money supply collapsed. The reason why things go wrong is because the banks have control of the money supply and constantly increase it through Fractional Reserve Loans. Then the debt causes recessions. It is that simple. As long as that is not talked about, economists with PhDs will get caught up with trying to fix the economy which is inherently structurally broken.

    Peter de Luca: Economist and College Professor

  30. He compares the 1930s to now because nominal (stated) interest rates, like today, were low and the government was expanding the money supply. Yes that is true. But there is a big difference between the 1930s and the present economic condition and that is in the 1930s there was a 30% drop in prices due to the collapse in the money supply. That didn't happen from 2009 to now. So, you have to look at REAL interest rates not nominal interest rates. Real interest rates take into account the change in the price level. Real interest rates in the 1930s for people who took out loans before the 30% deflation increased to very high levels. Because real interest rates were extremely high, debt was very difficult to pay back in the 1930s. But there was no deflation from 2009 to now. Just cheap, unbridled, fiat money and the continued desire to borrow it at low nominal and REAL interest rates. People and businesses for the past 10 years have been fine with borrowing because of low real interest rates. Inflation continues to eat away at the past debt. People and businesses in the 1930s stayed away from borrowing like the plague. What bank would lend to someone who was already saddled with a debt that only increased in its value through deflation?
    The situation now is very unique. It can't be compared to any other era. We have fiat currency and massive realized and unrealized debt at the global level.

    Peter de Luca: Economist and College Professor

  31. PENCILS!?!? YOU THINK STUDENTS HAVING TO SHARE PENCILS IS THE PROBLEM!?!? You're a smart man Dalio you cant expect us to believe you're that dumb. How about all the tax breaks and financial loop holes that only the elite have access to? How about the cantillon affect? How about legally stealing the spending power of the of the most uninformed and poverish people through fractional reserved banking? The list goes on and on. While you get loans from all your buddies at almost 0% normal people will pay up 25% , but as long as we dont have to share pencils we will be ok.

  32. FED created this rigged game and Bernanke is one of the biggest criminal. Don't forget this is completely rigged market. Market will drop big but time is unknown. I hope soon, so can buy things much cheaper

  33. If Bernanke was in China, Xi has executed him with his own hands. Seriously they are truly criminals. FED killed JFK. End the FED.

  34. Make a law that limits executive pay of publicly owned companies to a multiple of average employee pay. Example: average employee pay is 30k per year. Ceo multiple set at 100 would mean 100x30k equals 3 mil a year ceo pay. If he wants more average employee pay has to rise. Private companies can do whatever they want. And dividends need to be much much higher. I am tired of risking my money and getting a lousy dividend. Then if they flop the shareholders who are the true owners get screwed.

  35. While comparing income distribution in the economy between now and the 1930s (income inequality), Ray glosses over the fact that those at the bottom today are not nearly as impoverished. I've heard it said that some of the richest people on the planet are the poor people in the US. I think of a quote from Denish DSouza before he immigrated from India: "I want to live in a country where the poor people are fat." Also, there is real danger in the government being the arbitrator of income distribution. Ray is big on the benefits of a "meritocracy" while he is therefore advocating for a "ineptocracy". I'd rather wealth stay mostly in the hands of those who create it.

  36. These guys are both fantastic Ray dalio and the interviewer they actually listen to each other and understand cause and effect

    This is the method I apply to my real estate investing. See my channel. I buy rehab and fix up multifamily and commercial real eatwte

  37. The financial class don't have to worry about getting their minimum wage. They're getting tons of free money from the Fed and tax breaks

  38. Never heard of him, but after this clear and precise speech which I haven't heard in a while from anyone, I will definitely read his book!

  39. It's sooo funny how bitcoin will save the world economy. This is crazy. if you understand you understand

  40. If the banks was owned by the people (state) there wouldn’t be a problem with zero interest rate. However when banks like Federal Reserve or IMF is using their political, monetary and financial tools to enslave people then there is a problem. However a good interview and relevant issue.

  41. For over 40 years people’s jobs have been replaced with computers and some type of robots. Secretarial pools, armies of accountants, gas station attendants, manufacturing jobs, and even coal miners have been replaced with computer driven machines. This increase in productivity and profits were not shared with all employees. In the late 1960’s CEO’s and other corporate leaders used to make 19 times the average salary, today they make 200 to 500 times the average salary. And wages are only measured against cost of price increases not the increase in things we need to buy, two car families, health insurance, computers, internet, cell phones and greater education demands. People, for the most part, have been able to adapt to these changes. But now it’s getting harder and the available slice of the salary pie is getting smaller.

  42. strategic default will come eventually as the hard choices will not be made by the beltway vermin

  43. Why don't they teach finance in public schools? Oh that's right – because they want us all in debt so we become wage slaves/robots to serve the rich. Only 2 types of people in the world = INVESTORS(RICH) + CONSUMERS(POOR) Wake up people!

  44. I am not sure how many of you saw the most recent CNBC interview with Warren Buffet before the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting. At the end Buffet mentioned something about how economic environment as the one we are in today is not normal and something may be coming. What are your thoughts?

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